The AI Boom Is Eating the World's Memory Supply
The price you pay for RAM and storage is about to jump again, and this time the increase is steep. Industry analysts now expect memory prices to climb sharply through the second half of 2026, driven by AI infrastructure buildouts that are consuming DRAM and NAND faster than manufacturers can produce it.
According to reporting from TechSpot, memory shortages that have already been pushing up consumer electronics prices are expected to worsen through the rest of 2026 and into 2027. Meaningful relief for buyers may not show up until 2028.
How Steep Will the Price Increases Get
Q3 and Q4 2026 Forecasts
Ethan Tan, a memory industry consultant and former Samsung China executive, briefed Jefferies Equity Research analysts with forecasts well above what Western investors and Jefferies' own internal research had projected. Tan expects memory prices to rise 40% to 50% in Q3 2026 compared to the prior quarter, followed by another 30% to 40% increase in Q4.
The Outlook Into 2027 and 2028
Tan projects that chip manufacturing advances will only add 7% to 8% more supply in 2026, meaning the shortage carries into 2027, when prices could climb another 40% to 45%. Only once supply expands and AI demand cools might prices ease — Tan estimates a possible 15% to 20% pullback in 2028.
Three Companies Control Nearly All of the World's Memory
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron together manufacture almost all of the world's DRAM and NAND. That concentration matters because AI data centers pay far higher margins for memory than consumer PCs, smartphones, or game consoles do — giving manufacturers a strong incentive to prioritize server-grade memory over the components that go into everyday devices.
Data center demand currently outstrips what the three companies can produce combined, and prices have risen as much as 700% over the past four years. That squeeze has already pushed Apple, Sony, and Microsoft into raising prices on their own consumer hardware.
Why Chinese Manufacturers Can't Close the Gap Yet
Chinese memory maker CXMT has emerged as a potential alternative supplier, and benchmark testing shows its DDR5 RAM already performs well enough for consumer PCs — prompting Apple to lobby the US government for permission to source from the blacklisted company. But CXMT's near-term impact will stay limited: domestic Chinese manufacturers lack access to advanced fabrication tools like EUV lithography, which are needed to produce next-generation chips. That keeps CXMT locked out of DDR6 and HBM3E production for now, though Tan expects Chinese NAND technology to reach parity with the rest of the industry by 2028.
Building competitive fabs isn't easy for anyone. New facilities cost tens of billions of dollars, take years to bring online, and depend on decades of accumulated manufacturing know-how — and US export controls further restrict Chinese firms from acquiring the advanced equipment needed to compete at the leading edge.
A New Price-Fixing Lawsuit Enters the Picture
Rising prices haven't gone unquestioned. A group of 17 California plaintiffs has filed suit — Garciaguirre et al. v. Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. et al. — accusing Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron of deliberately restricting DRAM supply to drive prices higher, as reported by Law360.
What the Lawsuit Claims
The plaintiffs allege the three companies cut DRAM production even as prices rose, shifted manufacturing capacity toward high-margin HBM server memory, and phased out conventional supply channels — all of which pushed prices upward. Their core argument: in a genuinely competitive market, at least one of the three would have ramped up output to capture rising prices, forcing the others to respond in kind. Instead, all three moved in lockstep.
This Wouldn't Be the First Time
If the case proceeds, it would mark roughly the third memory price-fixing controversy involving these companies in about 30 years. Samsung, SK Hynix (then known as Hynix), Micron, and the now-defunct DRAM divisions of Infineon and Elpida pleaded guilty to price-fixing between 1998 and 2002, with Samsung paying a $300 million fine and SK Hynix paying $185 million.
The same three companies came under scrutiny again during a price spike in the late 2010s, which led to a 2018 US class action — later dismissed on appeal for insufficient evidence — as well as a separate investigation by Chinese regulators.
What Rising Memory Prices Mean for Everyday Buyers
For anyone planning a PC upgrade, buying a new phone, or shopping for a game console, the timing matters. With shortages expected to persist through 2027 and forecasted price hikes stacking on top of increases already in effect, waiting could mean paying meaningfully more later this year. Barring a shift in AI demand or a breakthrough in supply, 2028 is the earliest point analysts expect any real relief.