LinkedIn Data Points to a 20% Hiring Decline Since 2022

LinkedIn’s data shows that hiring has fallen by around 20% since 2022. Blake Lawit, the company’s chief global affairs and legal officer, said LinkedIn’s labor market view is based on an economic graph that includes more than a billion members, along with companies, jobs, and skills. He described it as a real-time picture of what is happening across the labor market.

That broad view matters because the question has become hard to ignore: is AI already reducing jobs? According to LinkedIn’s own analysis, the answer is not yet.

Why LinkedIn Says AI Is Not Driving the Hiring Slowdown

Lawit said the company specifically examined whether AI is affecting jobs right now and did not find evidence showing that it is. In his view, the expected signs are not appearing in the areas people most often associate with AI disruption.

He pointed to fields such as customer support, administrative work, and marketing. These are the kinds of categories where many people would expect to see earlier labor market effects if AI were already driving a hiring pullback. But LinkedIn’s data did not show those segments falling more sharply than the broader market.

Hiring Is Down, but Not More in AI-Exposed Areas

That distinction sits at the center of LinkedIn’s position. Hiring is down overall, but the decline is not deeper in the job areas that are most frequently discussed in AI conversations.

In other words, the broader hiring slowdown is real, but LinkedIn does not see a clear pattern that ties it directly to AI adoption at this stage.

What LinkedIn Thinks Is Behind the Hiring Decline

Interest Rates Appear More Closely Connected

Instead of blaming AI, Lawit suggested the hiring decline is more closely linked to rising interest rates. That framing shifts the explanation away from technology replacing work and toward wider economic conditions.

So while AI remains the headline issue in many discussions about work, LinkedIn’s current labor market read points to macroeconomic pressure as the more immediate reason hiring has weakened since 2022.

What the Data Says About Young Adults and First Jobs

Another closely watched concern is whether college-aged young adults entering the workforce are being hit harder than everyone else. LinkedIn’s data did not indicate that this group was “down more” when compared with people who are in the middle of their careers or later in their careers.

That does not mean early-career hiring is strong. It means the decline does not appear more severe for first-job seekers than for other workers, based on what LinkedIn is seeing.

AI May Not Be Causing Hiring Losses Yet, but Work Is Still Changing

The Average Job Is Already Shifting

Even while pushing back on the idea that AI is currently behind the hiring decline, Lawit made it clear that jobs are still changing. He said the skills needed to do the average job have changed by 25% over the last several years.

That alone suggests a labor market in motion. A role can stay in place while the work inside it keeps evolving.

LinkedIn Expects Faster Skill Change by 2030

LinkedIn expects that shift to accelerate with the rise of AI. The company projects that the skills needed for the average job will change by 70% by 2030.

That forecast sharpens the real warning in LinkedIn’s message. The immediate issue may not be AI-driven hiring collapse, but the long-term pressure on workers could come through changing skill requirements instead.

Your Job Can Change Even If You Stay Put

Lawit summed it up in a simple way: even if you are not changing jobs, your job is changing on you.

That idea captures the tension in the data. AI may not yet be the main force behind lower hiring, but it is still reshaping what employers need from workers.

What LinkedIn’s Hiring Data Really Suggests

The clearest takeaway is that today’s hiring slowdown and tomorrow’s AI impact are not the same thing. LinkedIn says the market is weaker, but it does not currently see proof that AI is the reason. At the same time, the company does expect AI to drive major changes in job skills over time.

So the present story is about reduced hiring without a confirmed AI fingerprint. The next story may be about how quickly jobs transform as skill demands shift.